Shimmering Skies’ set championships kicked off this weekend at your local game stores. On every Saturday and Sunday throughout October, participati🐟ng LGS’ will be hosting tournaments for Lorcana players with a chance to win playmats and Enchanted promo cards featuring Encanto’s Mirabel. This is the third round of set champs, yet unlike the events for Into the Inklan💮ds and Ursula’s Return, the hype for the championships seems to be much lower than usual.
‘Hype’ is a pretty subjective thing to measure, and the evidence I have to back up this claim is, admittedly, anecdotal. If you’re at all engaged with💦 the Lorcana community online, be it on Disc♈ord, Twitter, or Facebook, you’ve likely seen the lower attendance numbers too. I live in Southern California where there are dozens of stores to choose from, and I’m used to seeing pre-registrations on Melee fill up immediately. This time around, there are open spots still available at most of the events around me, including the ones that are happening this weekend.
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There’s one big difference between this set championship and the previous ones. Starting♐ with Shimmering Skies, the top eight players of the set champ will win a promo card, rather than just the top four. This change is widely regarded as a positive one for Lorcana, and something , but it seems to be the case that doubling the amount of prize cards available has lowered overall interest in this season’s set champs.
The great thing about doubling the prize pool is that twice as many people will win one. Unfortunately, basic supply and demand principles apply as well. If there are twice as many cards up for g♉rabs, the value of that card should be cut in half. The set champ Ursula from the last set goes for about $85, so we can expect the market for Mirabel to settle somewhere around $40-50.
Market value isn’t everything of course. As someone who collects cards and loves competing, I’d be th෴ere even if the prize was a bulk Legendary and a firm handshake. But the expected value from any competition is a big factor for most people when they’re deciding whether or not to dedicate their time to an event, which may include weeks of practice before giving up an entire Saturday.
Others have suggested additional factors that may have an impact on interest in set champs this season. Some believe Mirabel isn’t a popular enough character to drive demand, and I’ve seen some (unfair) criticism of the art. These might be factors for some, but the increased prizing is, by and large, what’s d🌃riving down interest here.
It’s a tough sell for a lot of people, especially once you consider that entrance fees range from $20-30. Should I give up an entire Saturday and $30 for a chance at a $40 card? For most people, the answer is probably no. We don’t know how much Mirabel will be worth yet, and if enough people are planning to skip the events and just buy the card later, they might be in for a rude awakening when the demand drives the price up higher than expected. What I really h💝ope is that a reduced turnout will drive game stores to reevaluate how they host set championships moving forward.
If the expected value is too low, it's up to stores to increase🌜 prizing to drive players into the event. That’s not something stores really hadꦺ to worry about in the past. The EV on Stitch, Rockstar at the Into the Inklands set champ was so high that stores didn’t need to supplement the winners with extra packs or store credit.
But if spe🐻nding the time aꦅnd money to play for Mirabel isn’t worth it to people, the stores are going to have to kick in some additional prize support to make it worth it, which, considering they’re getting supplied the promos and playmats for free, seems like a reasonable cost of business.
Tඣhere’s always the fear that the wrong lessons will be learned from a situation like this. A lower turn out may communicate to some stores that players are losing interest in Lorcana. But you only need to look at the attendance at Disney Lorcana Challenges, which consistently sells out thousands of tickets in a matter of seconds, to realize that isn’t the case.
There’s a balance that needs to be found. I think Ravensburger correctly identified that top four prizing wasn’t healthy for the game and the community because it was creating resentment between different groups of players. When the promos were worth hundredsꦰ,♛ the uber-competitive players were incentivized to travel near and far and collect as many as possible, which left more casual players feeling unfairly outmatched, especially if the people that won weren’t regular locals at their home store.
Top 8 prizing is a positive change for set champs, but now the pendulum has swung too far back the other way,⭕ and the expected value has decreased too much to make competing worthwhile. Stores will need to evaluate how to better incentivize players rather than solely relying on the promo cards to do that for them. This is an interesting transition period for the set championship model, and moving forward I expect to see a lot of local game stores adapting their events, or risk losing players to the stores that do.
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